Brazil Heads Into a Pivotal Presidential Vote With Lula and Bolsonaro Rival Neck-and-Neck

2026, October 1

Brazil

Brazil's presidential campaign enters its final days before Sunday's first-round vote, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva expected to finish first but unlikely to win enough votes to avoid a runoff. Polls indicate a potentially extremely close second round against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro; one recent Atlas poll put Flávio at 47.7% and Lula at 47.6%.

The election is internationally significant because Brazil is Latin America's largest economy and a major agricultural, commodities and diplomatic power. Lula has emphasized maintaining close economic ties with China while managing difficult relations with Washington, whereas the Bolsonaro camp has cultivated stronger links with U.S. President Donald Trump. The likely runoff is scheduled for 25 October.