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2026, October 9 Ethiopia / Eritrea
Eritrea has rejected Ethiopia's account of the broader dispute, accusing Addis Ababa of pursuing an aggressive campaign linked to its ambition to regain access to the Red Sea. The two countries have exchanged accusations and recently severed diplomatic ties. Renewed fighting also threatens to compound the instability created by Ethiopia's internal conflict and the ongoing war in neighbouring Sudan.
Why it matters: A direct war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could destabilise the Horn of Africa, disrupt Red Sea security and create another major humanitarian emergency.
Sources: Reuters — Ethiopia alleges Eritrean invasion · The Guardian — Drone strikes and rising regional tensions