IMF warns that an AI investment slowdown could threaten global growth

2026, October 13

Thailand / International

The IMF has warned that the global economy faces growing risks from heavy investment in artificial intelligence, rising public debt and the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. It forecasts global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with continued AI infrastructure spending helping to offset the effects of higher oil prices.

The Fund cautions that a sharp decline in AI investment could trigger falling asset prices and weaker economic activity, potentially reducing global GDP by 1.1% by 2028 in a downside scenario. A prolonged conflict that keeps oil prices above $130 per barrel into early 2027 could also reduce next year's growth by half a percentage point. The warnings highlight how closely financial markets, technology investment and geopolitical risks have become intertwined.

Why it matters: Investors and businesses face a combination of market-valuation risks, higher financing costs and potentially persistent inflation.

Source: Reuters — IMF flags risks to global economy